Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from 18th and 19th Century Iceland

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in pre-industrial Iceland: a year 1◦C cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 0.57% in each of the next two years, for a total effect of 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate: these adaptations take about 20 years and reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, we find that a 1◦C sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%.